Being top at Christmas, does it mean anything? Is it a genuine sign of future champions, of half a job done, or is it merely a commonly talked about irrelevancy to which we should pay no heed? Yes, it has mathematical relevance, but we all know how quickly form can change in football and what’s a few points difference when there are still nineteen games to be played? The problem with having so much media hype surrounding football is that we are lead to believe at every stage of the season that the race is decided.
When Arsenal started badly at the beginning of the season there were people suggesting that they might be relegated, now they’re fifth. When Manchester United beat Arsenal 8-2 they were going to win the league. Then until recently the press were saying that there was no hope of catching Manchester City, now they’re on the same amount of points as United. The problem is that companies like Sky need to make every match seem as important as possible and although it may seem unbearably painful when your team draws 1-1 at Wolves on a Tuesday evening, ultimately the season is too long and complex to be predicted before March at the earliest. Even then you never know what might happen.
There are plenty of examples of leads being overturned and there are even examples of huge and seemingly unassailable leads being overturned. Just look At Arsene Wenger’s first premier League title; at the beginning of March Arsenal were eleven points behind Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United. Nobody predicted that Arsenal could possibly overcome such odds but they did. Or you could look at Liverpool’s 1981-82 campaign. At Christmas they were tenth and they went on to win the title. Subsequently how can any of us count out any of the top six who, although it might be a big ask, all have the players capable of winning the title should they go on an excellent run of form.
Form is another important factor as well. Some teams tend to perform better in the second half of the season than the first, or vice versa. Take Man Utd for example. They always seem to labour thought the first half of the season picking up draws and 1-0 wins. Then after Christmas they turn it on and push for the finish line. In contrast you have Arsenal who, over the past five years, have started very well only to apparently forget how to play football towards the end of the season.
We all know and love football, and we all know that know that anything can happen in game, no matter how much a team might be winning by the result is never certain (just look at Liverpool in the Champions League final, or the 4-4 between Arsenal and Newcastle last year). We should view individual games as a metaphor for the league. Nothing is ever certain and the only predictable quality of our league is its unpredictability. I’m not saying that anyone can win the league, that would be stupid, but what I am saying is that the constant predictions about champions and relegation are tiresome. There is no way that anyone can be certain of anything. If there was then you wouldn’t see bookies taking bets. Our obsession with who is top at Christmas or New Year is meaningless. Players can get injured, sold, bought or lose form. Managers can be sacked, managers can be hired and no matter what position a team is in come Christmas, there is always the potential to change that circumstance, perhaps it’s time we realised that.
Follow me on Twitter @H_Mackay
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